Estudio de la demanda turística en el mundo, América, el Perú y en la región Puno

1 ABSTRACT Based on the statistical information of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) and of the National Statistic and Informatics Institute (INEI), on the flow of tourists in the world and America; also at national and regional level, with the purpose of determining the behavior and composition of the tourist flow and the income for tourism to world level, America and South America; to describe the evolution of the tourist flow and of the foreign currencies generated by the tourism in Peru economy and the existent relationship with the exchange rate, the foreign currencies and the Real GDP; and the composition and evolution of the tourist flow of the Region Puno and for counties, using a deductive methodology has been obtained the following results: For the world level, there were 13 thousand million tourists (1980-2005), being 59.9%, 20.0%, 13.6%, 3.6% and 2.9% for Europe, America, Asia Pacific, Africa and Middle East; while, the generated revenues were 8.5 thousands millions of dollars, those relatively were of 52.3%, 25%, 17.1%, 2.6% and 3.1%. Their lineal coefficients of the tourism/income in function to the tourism arrivals were 0.969, 1.615, 0.971, 0.507 and 0.775 and thousands of US$ by tourist. In America, the tourist flow was 1,323 million tourists (1996 – 2005). By the level of countries of South America, the composition was 26.39%, 22.13%, 12.14%, 10.24%, 6.97%, 6.13%, 4.90%, 4.32%, 2.70% and 2.62% for Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Bolivia and Paraguay, respectively; being the revenues of 1360.18 thousand million dollars. In Peru, the tourist flow was 14.742 (13.68%) and 90.933 (86.32%) millions of foreign and national tourists, and its growth rates of 6.68% and 11.78% (1997 – 2005). The receptive tourist flow (2004), for origins they were: United States (22.30%), France (8%), Germany (5.7%), Spain (5.2%), Japan (4.3%), Italy (3.7%), Chile (3.6%), Argentina (3.4%), Canada (3.1%), Brazil (2.8%), Ecuador (2.6%), Colombia (2.5%), Mexico (2.2%); and the destination was Lima (44.13%), Cusco (25.65%), Arequipa (7.9%), Puno (5.75%) and Ica (4.82%). The internal tourism was toward Lima (53.48%), La Libertad (4.67%), Arequipa (4.38%), Junín (3.77%), Ica (3.4%), Piura (3.22%), Lambayeque (3.15%), Ancash (3%), San Martin (2.69%), Cusco (2.52%), Cajamarca (2.17%), Huanuco (2.11%) and Puno (1.60%)

2 The 2004, the receptive tourism generated 1,142 (43.47%) millions of dollars; while the internal tourism 1,484 (56.53%); the first one represented 2.79% of GDP and 5.35% of GDP of the sector services. The per cápita income was US $894.8 with a negative tendency (2.3%), explained by the devaluation of the national currency. Each foreign tourist who enters to the Peruvian economy it contributes the sum of US additionally $616.

In Puno region, the flow was 823,347 (36.14%) and 1'362176 (63.86%) of foreign and national tourists (1995 – 2004) and the rates of growth of 10.03% and 1.02%. The receptive tourist flow, for origin, they were 62.23%, 21.14%, 8.94% and 7.24% of Europe, America, Asia Pacific and Africa and other countries; of 708,800 tourists, and the rates of growth of 56.17%, 11.61%, 9.58%, 4.70% and -5.03% for other countries, Asia, Europe, America and Africa, respectively; being the average of 11.30%. In the receptive tourism, six countries cover 52.95% of the regional tourist flow (France, Germany, United States, Italy, Japan and Spain with 16.41%, 10.12%, 8.71%, 6.64%, 5.65% and 5.42%). The capital of the region absorbs 96.73%.

The behavior of the regional receptive tourist flow is systematic, of July to November, it reaches its maximum in the month of August (70.4%). The internal tourist flow (1996- 2004), it was 1.223 million tourists. At level of departments they come from the interior of the region Puno (44%), Lima (17.07%), Arequipa (16.25%), Cusco (11.19%), Tacna (4.35%) and Moquegua (3.36%). The destination of the internal tourism was toward San Román (49.21%) and Puno (41.28%). The behavior of the flow tourist internal regional sample a systematic behavior (1996-2004), being February, August and October-November, the months of more affluence.

Key words: Demands tourist, tourist flows, national tourism, regional tourism.

3 RESUMEN En base a la información estadística de la Organización Mundial de Turismo (OMT) y del Instituto Nacional Estadística e Informática (INEI), sobre el flujo de turistas en el mundo y en América; asimismo a nivel nacional y regional, se ha determinado el comportamiento y composición del flujo turístico y el ingreso por turismo a nivel mundial, América y América del Sur; descrito la evolución del flujo turístico y de las divisas generadas por el turismo en la economía del Perú y la relación que existe entre el tipo de cambio, las divisas y el PBI Real; y de la composición y evolución del flujo turístico de la Región Puno y por provincias, utilizando una metodología deductiva llegando a los resultados siguientes: A nivel mundial, hubo 13 mil millones de turistas (1980-2005), siendo el 59.9%, 20.0%, 13.6%, 3.6% y 2.9% para Europa, América, Asia Pacífico, África y Medio Oriente; mientras que, los ingresos generados fueron 8.5 miles millones de dólares, los que relativamente fueron de 52.3%, 25%, 17.1%, 2.6% y 3.1%; y sus estimadores lineales de ingreso/turismo en función al arribo turístico fueron 0.969, 1.615, 0.971, 0.507 y 0.775 miles de US$/turista. En América, el flujo turístico fue 1,323 mi